The week closed with financing conditions still demanding and demand signals moving in different directions. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage average rose to 7.40%, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased from Monday's level but remained above 5%. Federal Reserve minutes emphasized persistent inflation risk and the likelihood of another rate increase this year. At the same time, wholesale sales accelerated, the U.S. trade deficit widened, and revolving consumer credit contracted.
01 · FINANCING
The 10-year Treasury yield ends Thursday at 5.22%
The U.S. Treasury's daily par yield curve shows the 10-year yield at 5.22% on Thursday, October 8, down from 5.31% on Monday but still above 5%. The 30-year yield ended Thursday at 5.60%.
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey reports that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.40% on October 8, up from 7.28% one week earlier.
Fed minutes keep another 2026 rate increase in view
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September 15–16 meeting say most participants expected another increase in the federal funds target range would likely be appropriate by year-end. Participants generally saw inflation risk tilted to the upside while viewing labor-market risks as broadly balanced.
The U.S. goods and services deficit increased 13.7% in August to $105.6 billion. Exports rose 1.4% to $315.2 billion, while imports increased 4.3% to $420.8 billion.
Consumer credit growth slows as revolving balances contract
Federal Reserve data show total consumer credit growing at a 1.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate in August. Revolving credit fell at a 4.2% annual rate, while nonrevolving credit increased at a 4.1% rate.
August merchant-wholesaler sales rose 1.8% from July to $817.5 billion, while inventories increased 0.5% to $964.2 billion. The inventories-to-sales ratio fell to 1.18 from 1.28 a year earlier.
Dominican policy and lending rates reinforce financing discipline
Banco Central de la República Dominicana reports a 5.50% policy rate for October. September's weighted-average active bank rate was 13.65%, while total private lending was 8.1% above a year earlier.
Friday watchlist: preliminary October consumer sentiment
The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers calendar schedules the preliminary October reading for Friday, October 9. No result is assumed in this review.